Northern Lights: The Sudden Ascent Of Icelandic Football

Last Tuesday evening, the streets of Reykjavik fell silent. A one-all draw in Oslo against Norway was, in the end, sufficient. When news filtered through that Switzerland, already qualified, had done them the requisite favour by beating Slovenia, Iceland’s place in the World Cup play-offs was secure. It is the furthest the national team has ever travelled in a major tournament.

For a national association that was only formed seventeen years after the country’s first unofficial international match in 1930, it represents a remarkable moment. The Icelandic FA, the KSI, has overseen a journey from rank outsiders to genuine contenders for a place in Brazil next summer. FIFA did not even permit their entry for the 1954 World Cup, and their first attempt to qualify for the 1958 finals ended with four defeats and twenty-six goals conceded. Progress has been glacial, not seismic. They failed to enter the next three competitions and their return for the 1974 qualifiers ended in six straight defeats.

A Structure for Success

It is easy to dismiss this achievement as a fluke, the product of a favourable group or a lucky draw. Yet doing so ignores the structure that underpins football in a nation of just three hundred and twenty thousand people. The depth of interest is reflected in a domestic league system comprising four national divisions, with a fifth tier of three provincial leagues below. While this pyramid has been historically dominated by a handful of clubs from the capital region, it speaks to a broad base of participation and organisation that belies the country's population size.

Of the ten clubs to have won the domestic league title in its 102-year history, four of them have accounted for eighty-two of those championships. This concentration of power, with three of the big four based in Reykjavik, suggests a system where resources and talent have historically pooled in one area. But the current national squad demonstrates a more outward-looking model. While three players, including two goalkeepers, still ply their trade domestically, the key figures are exports. Gylfi Sigurdsson of Tottenham Hotspur, Aron Gunnarsson of Cardiff City, and Kolbeinn Sigþórsson of Ajax provide the quality honed in Europe’s bigger leagues. They are augmented by the veteran presence of thirty-five year old Eiður Guðjohnsen, once of Barcelona and now with Club Brugge.

This blend of domestic roots and European experience is managed by Lars Lagerbäck, a man with nineteen years of experience inside the Swedish Football Association, including nine as head coach. His appointment was a statement of intent from the KSI, bringing in proven international tournament expertise. The campaign itself was far from perfect, featuring losses in Cyprus and at home to Slovenia, but a strong run of results this season, including a draw in Switzerland and narrow wins against Albania and Cyprus, built the momentum that carried them into the play-offs.

The Croatian Test

The draw in Switzerland this afternoon was kind, at least on paper. Iceland avoided Portugal, Ukraine and Greece, instead pairing with a Croatia team that appears to be in a state of flux. Their coach, Igor Štimac, resigned following a recent defeat to Scotland, leaving them rudderless ahead of such a significant two-legged tie. Croatia’s qualifying record of five wins, two draws and three defeats is identical to Iceland’s, suggesting a level of parity that the historical reputations of the two nations would not.

The Icelandic side’s first ever World Cup qualifying victory, incidentally, came at their thirteenth attempt, a one-nil win against Northern Ireland in June 1977.

If the psychological dimension of football counts for anything, the advantage may rest with the underdog. This is a young Icelandic squad, with only five of its twenty-two members over the age of thirty. They seem enthused by the pressure of the big occasion rather than cowed by it. That youthful energy, combined with Croatian instability, presents a clear opportunity.

To write them off as no-hopers would be premature.

Even if this Croatian challenge proves a step too far, the structure of this team suggests this is no flash in the pan. The youth of the squad points towards a foundation for future campaigns. But for now, all eyes are on the two-legged tie against a Croatian side that, despite its troubles, will start as firm favourites. The question is whether Iceland’s remarkable run has one more surprise left in it.